Mocha Falls: The Houthis Now Hold the Coast Opposite Bab al-Mandab, and the Kingdom’s Second Exit Is a Battlefield, Not a Bypass
Government forces retreated from Mocha on Thursday, the Houthis reached the Hanish and Zuqar islands and pushed toward Dhubab, and the Yanbu route that was built to escape Hormuz now runs past a coast held by the enemy it was meant to avoid.
The Houthis took Mocha on Thursday. Four Yemeni government military sources told Reuters the port city had fallen; two more said the group had then reached the Hanish islands and was pushing the National Resistance Forces south to Dhubab, which sits on the strait directly across from Perim, and which the sources described as the key to holding Bab al-Mandab together with the island. A Yemeni military source told AFP the Houthis had also seized Zuqar island by rocket fire and boat-borne assault. Tarek Saleh, the commander whose forces held Mocha, said he had moved his command centre to a safe location to regroup and that his men had paid a heavy price against an offensive planned and supported by Iran. Rashad al-Alimi, who chairs the Presidential Leadership Council, said Bab al-Mandab cannot become another Strait of Hormuz and that Yemen cannot become another Iran. The Guardian, citing Acled, put the dead at 276 in the first five days of the escalation alone; AFP’s running tally since last week is above 500, mostly combatants, with nearly 20,000 displaced per IOM.
The Houthi position on shipping is precise and should be read as such. Spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam said navigation in the Red Sea and the strait remains safe and uninterrupted and that operations are limited to specific targets; the group’s Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center said the sea is safe for all shipping companies except Saudi vessels, which remain under the ban declared in July; the Supreme Political Council in Sanaa said fighting on the coast had been halted and asked parties concerned with maritime security to press Saudi Arabia not to send further reinforcements to Mocha. The ship-tracking data behind those words: 28 commodity ships transited Bab al-Mandab on Wednesday against a 10-day average of 27, while Hormuz transits fell to seven from 12 the day before. The strait the Houthis are reaching for is, for now, the one that still works, which is the whole point of reaching for it.
Riyadh’s air campaign continued without Riyadh saying so. Saree counted 64 Saudi strikes in 24 hours and Al-Masirah reported 10 on Taiz province; the Houthi-run Saba agency counted a further 40 on Taiz, Hodeidah, al-Jawf and Marib; the Guardian’s figure for Thursday was as many as 40. Reuters recorded that Saudi Arabia did not confirm the strikes, so the observable Edition 8 set, a Saudi acknowledgement, is resolved in the negative for another day. The UN Security Council met in emergency session at the request of Britain and Bahrain; envoy Hans Grundberg said Yemen faces its gravest risk of full-scale war since the 2022 truce, the United States called the Houthis Iranian proxies and asked for tighter sanctions enforcement, Russia condemned the Saudi strikes while blaming the stalled UN process, and Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government affirmed the right of self-defence and asked for enforcement of the resolutions on arms transfers to the group.
The Kingdom has spent six months routing its barrels around Hormuz to Yanbu, and Thursday established that the exit from Yanbu is now contested at its narrowest point by a force that names Saudi hulls, and only Saudi hulls, as targets. That is the judgment: the Houthi offensive is not a Yemeni land grab with maritime side effects, it is a maritime instrument with a land component, aimed at the one route Riyadh still controls, and it is being run, on the account of two Iranian sources to Reuters, with IRGC commanders sent to Yemen to help coordinate it. The inference from the ship counts is that Tehran does not need to close Bab al-Mandab to succeed; it needs to make Saudi cargoes uninsurable there while everyone else sails through, and Thursday’s 28 transits beside a Saudi-only ban is exactly that picture. The observable is Dhubab: if the National Resistance Forces hold the town, the strait is threatened but not held, and if Dhubab falls, the September Yanbu loadings this edition records become the last clean month of the bypass.