saudi.info

Asharq Al-Awsat's Aden desk reported fierce clashes near Bab al-Mandab on Tuesday between the Houthis and government forces backed by the Giants Brigades, the Nation's Shield Forces and the Tihama Brigades, with troops fighting to seize hills overlooking the waterway under airstrikes on Houthi positions around Mocha and along the western coast. Government military sources said the hilltops were taken and that Houthi fighters fled by boat; preliminary reports described strikes on boats ferrying reinforcements to positions near the strait. Nation's Shield sources dismissed reports that the Houthis had seized the Kahboub mountains and said their troops remained at Dhubab airport. In Taiz, Colonel Abdulbasit al-Bahr said government troops seized Mount al-Midan after fighting backed by airstrikes and established fire control along the Al-Dhabab road, but met stiff resistance near the Old Airport camp and Madrat. The army spokesman Colonel Majed al-Nuzaili put the day's air effort at 1,276 strikes under Operation Dawn of Yemen, across Al-Jawf, Marib, Al-Bayda and the southern fronts, with the stated aim of preventing the Houthis from concentrating reserves on any single front.

The other side of the ledger is Houthi. Saree said his forces had repelled an advance by "Saudi-backed" units from the southern approaches to Bab al-Mandab, and Al Masirah reported Saudi strikes on Mocha; Reuters recorded no Saudi confirmation of either. Reuters also noted that government forces pushed the Houthis out of coastal areas near the strait earlier this month, which is the position the Houthis are now trying to reverse. The human cost is the one number that is not contested: the IOM counted more than 268,000 displaced as of October 23, almost all since September, in 62 districts across ten governorates, with Aden's displaced population more than doubling since October 7 to above 42,000 and Lahj hosting about 67,000. Taiz authorities said Houthi sniper fire killed five civilians on Tuesday.

The Saudi readout came through the Cabinet. Chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Tuesday, the Council of Ministers "discussed the talks held between states party to the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement and senior Iranian officials" on Monday, restated the Kingdom's support for Qatari and Pakistani mediation and "the pivotal role of the Makkah Agreement states in ensuring regional security," and recorded letters from Egypt's President Sisi and Kazakhstan's President Tokayev to the King and the Crown Prince, plus the Crown Prince's briefings on his meeting with President Macron and talks with Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis. The Iranian readout came from the Supreme Leader's office: Mojtaba Khamenei, unseen in public since March, met Rezaei, discussed "safeguarding national and regional security through the management of the Strait of Hormuz," and "emphasized the need to safeguard the rights and interests of the Iranian nation and the resistance front by adhering to the conditions set by the country's authorities." Reuters' summary of state media was that the four countries agreed to continue talks. No date, venue or text of conditions was published by any of the four.

Two other capitals spoke on Tuesday. A Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman told a briefing that Iran "should stop threats against Arab Gulf states and open the Strait of Hormuz to show good intentions," and that it "needs to show good intentions for mediation efforts to succeed," the plainest public condition Doha has set on its own mediation. In Moscow, on the sidelines of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum summit, Putin met Pezeshkian and then Emir Tamim and said the Islamabad memorandum signed in June with Qatari and Pakistani mediation "remains valid as a basis for advancing the negotiation process"; Pezeshkian repeated that the region can solve its problems without the United States. On the same day Prince Khalid bin Salman spoke by telephone with Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto, and the Foreign Ministry announced Saudi citizens' inclusion in the US Trusted Traveler programme, a small signal that the Washington channel is open at the working level while the embassy's ordered departure stands.

Egypt's House of Representatives, chaired by Speaker Hisham Badawi, voted on Monday to authorise President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to "undertake necessary" measures to support Saudi Arabia in defending itself, should Riyadh request assistance; the vote followed closed-door sessions and an earlier postponement, and Egypt's constitution requires two-thirds of legislators for combat deployments abroad. Sisi had said last Wednesday that any Egyptian action would be limited to protecting Saudi territory and borders rather than attacking Yemen, and Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, back from Riyadh, said Cairo still favoured a diplomatic settlement. Reuters noted that Egypt has said it is considering joining the Mecca pact. On Tuesday the Turkish parliament's foreign affairs committee approved the pact with the votes of President Erdogan's party and its allies; the text, published by Turkish state media, runs to 16 articles, binds the parties for ten years and treats an armed attack on one as an attack on all three, with provisions for joint weapons production, technology transfer and intelligence sharing. Committee chairman Fuat Oktay said the agreements "are not intended for aggression, expansionism, or the formation of a bloc against third countries"; Semra Caglar Gokalp of the DEM Party asked what limits Turkey's responsibility would have given Pakistan's borders with India and Afghanistan. The full assembly has no date. Turkish officials told AP they are considering sending military support to Saudi Arabia but that no Turkish troops will fight in Yemen or attack the Houthis.

Brent crude futures settled down $1.93, or 1.67 percent, at $113.88 a barrel on Tuesday and WTI down $1.86 at $99.90, Reuters reported from Houston, with the fall attributed to the Mecca pact states and Iran agreeing to continue talks and with prices still near six-month highs. Gelber & Associates wrote that "continued Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the expanding military presence in the Gulf are keeping supply risks in place, even as diplomatic headlines encourage some of the recent premium to unwind." The Washington Institute's incident data, cited by Reuters, made October the worst month for attacks on commercial shipping in and around Hormuz since the series began in 2017; UBS said traffic through the strait has risen while attacks have increased and lifted its year-end Brent view to about $110 from $100; SEB's Bjarne Schieldrop said the price now carries "a significant risk premium" for a US or Israeli strike on Iran "in the coming weeks." Commerzbank tied the next leg to Israel's election. On the water, Iran's army said through IRNA that "a few hours ago, an oil tanker in breach of regulations, having switched off its tracking systems and attempted to cross a prohibited and dangerous area east of the Strait of Hormuz, struck naval mines, causing damage and a fire," and repeated that the strait is "unsafe and closed" to uncoordinated transits. The vessel was not named and no owner, flag or third-party confirmation had appeared by press time. CENTCOM's position, from Admiral Brad Cooper's October 25 visit, is that "primary transit routes in the Strait of Hormuz remain free and clear of Iranian sea mines," with 1.5 billion barrels and more than 3,000 vessels escorted through since the summer.

Saudi Aramco is offering additional crude to European refiners for October and November loading, OilPrice reported on Tuesday from Bloomberg's account, weeks after telling the same customers that their contracted October cargoes would not arrive because an attack had shut the East-West pipeline. The late-October spot cargoes were offered at a discount to the official selling price, loading from Yanbu on the Red Sea or Sidi Kerir on Egypt's Mediterranean coast, the SUMED outlet; November spot cargoes followed, and European refiners have been told their full contracted November allocations will be delivered. The report says the pipeline "is running again," that the extra Saudi supply has already pushed down prices for some European grades this week, and that the Kingdom's output rose by roughly a third in September to more than 8 million barrels per day from August's lowest level in more than three decades, while the UAE is at a record and Iraqi exports approach pre-war levels. Aramco is also pursuing storage in Singapore from 2027. None of this has been confirmed by Aramco, which has made no statement on the pipeline's status, on Yanbu or Rabigh throughput, or on Tuesday's Ras Tanura claim.

The Saudi main index closed Tuesday at 9,986.45, up 224.67 points or 2.3 percent, with total turnover of SAR 7.2 billion according to Argaam's daily report, the second session in a row above SAR 5 billion after Monday's 3.43 percent gain. The parallel market NOMU rose 1.54 percent to 21,537.38 and the MSCI Tadawul 30 gained 2.2 percent to 1,353.52. The move came on the day the coalition announced three ballistic interceptions toward the Eastern Region and the Houthis claimed Ras Tanura, which is to say the market read Monday's Tehran meeting and Tuesday's Cabinet statement as the signal and the salvo as noise. Argaam's front page carried the earnings-season texture underneath: Al Rajhi Bank's management reiterated 2026 guidance while flagging net interest margin pressure, Banque Saudi Fransi reviewed its own guidance, Almarai announced SAR 500 million to enter the red meat market, Tadawul set out a mechanism to prevent internal matching with gross order routing, the CMA approved the merger of UBS Saudi Arabia into Credit Suisse Saudi Arabia, and NMDC Energy won three new Aramco projects. Two disclosures quantified Sunday's tariff decision at company level: Saudi Ceramics said production costs would rise 0.8 percent on the revised electricity tariff and Riyadh Steel expected a SAR 1.37 million impact.

Electricity service tariffs will rise by 5 to 17 percent from January 2027 and water bills will increase two- to threefold for most users, the two major state-owned utilities said on Sunday, in what Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank's Monica Malik called "the most significant utility price reforms since 2018" and the broadest fiscal consolidation since the pandemic, the Financial Times reported from Jeddah. The same day King Salman ordered offsetting measures: SAR 500 a month to civil servants, military personnel, retirees and eligible social-security households, and a rise in the private-sector minimum wage for Saudis from SAR 4,000 to SAR 5,000 by mid-2027 and SAR 6,000 by mid-2028. The timing is the point. The Finance Ministry's preliminary figures at the start of October project GDP to fall 3.6 percent this year "in light of geopolitical developments in the region"; inflation edged from 1.78 percent in the first quarter to 1.84 percent in the third; Malik expects a one-off January jump adding 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points to annual inflation for twelve months before it drops out. The IMF has long argued the subsidies were distortionary and encouraged overconsumption. On Tuesday the first corporate numbers arrived on Argaam: Saudi Ceramics put its production-cost increase at 0.8 percent, Riyadh Steel its impact at SAR 1.37 million.