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The IRGC Navy's public relations office said on Friday that a supertanker carrying more than 2 million barrels of crude ignored repeated radio warnings against using the southern passage, struck a mine, suffered "a powerful explosion" and was left burning while attempting to exit the strait through what the statement called an unauthorised route; it claimed this was the fourth tanker to catch fire in the strait since early Friday. Anadolu set that against UKMTO's earlier report of a vessel struck by an unidentified projectile 40 nautical miles south of Iran's Lavan Island at 18:00 GMT, hit on the port side with a fire on board, the crew safe and no environmental impact reported, and said it was not clear whether the two reports concerned the same ship. Reuters, in its market report, carried a different UKMTO account: a tanker hit by explosive devices attached by a small boat, which maritime sources called the first known successful limpet-mine strike in the waterway since the US-Israeli war with Iran began in February, with no attribution yet.

On the Kingdom's own bypass, Oilprice reported that the Houthis claimed an attack on the East-West pipeline, the line Riyadh has used to redirect crude from the Gulf to the Red Sea around Hormuz; it recorded that Saudi Arabia had not confirmed any attack on the pipeline, that the line was down for two weeks in September after drone attacks on pumping stations halted loadings at Yanbu, and that flows had recovered to 5.8 million barrels per day by October 6. Reuters added that Saudi crude exports rose in October from September according to two of three ship-tracking companies, despite the Iranian attacks on shipping and the Houthi claims against Saudi facilities. Anadolu also noted that despite the memorandum Washington and Tehran signed in June, disputes over maritime security and navigation arrangements in the strait have continued.

The State Department's readout of Friday's meeting is short and lists three regional files, Iran, Sudan and Yemen, before the Expo contract, which Rubio said formalises US participation in Expo 2030 Riyadh "where we will showcase American innovation, expand opportunities for U.S. businesses, and strengthen our partnership with Saudi Arabia". At the signing table at the Loews Atlanta he described the contract as "the United States formal commitment to Expo 2030" and the pavilion as "a few years away"; Prince Faisal's reply was two sentences of thanks. Nothing in either text mentions the ordered departure the embassy in Riyadh published the same day, nor the Houthi campaign that prompted it.

The live channel to Tehran ran elsewhere. Reuters reported that Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on Friday as part of coordinated efforts to reach a deal between the United States and Iran, citing an official briefed on the talks, and that Trump had said on Thursday that Vice President Vance reached out to Iran to help it obtain medical supplies after US media reported a Vance letter to Tehran's top security official aimed at reviving peace talks. Tasnim, per Reuters, said Iran had received the letter but had not responded, that Tehran wants Washington to meet its conditions, and that "any position that contradicts this framework is unacceptable". The National's live blog carried Trump saying the Iran war will "end soon" and Vance saying Trump will not let Iran become a "forever war"; Saxo Bank, per Reuters, told clients to expect more volatility around the November 3 midterms.

The National reported on Friday that Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, had written to the Crown Prince inviting him to this year's UN Water Conference in Abu Dhabi, and that Waleed Al Khereiji, Saudi Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, received the letter from Matar Al Dhaheri, the UAE ambassador to the Kingdom, during a meeting in Riyadh, citing WAM. The conference is to be co-hosted by the UAE and Senegal from December 8 to 10. The paper recalled its August report that President Sheikh Mohamed had written to King Salman with an official invitation to the same event, which makes this the second letter from Abu Dhabi's leadership to Riyadh's for one December stage.

The invitation arrives in a week when the Emirates' own convening power is being tested from a different direction: the same Reuters market report that carried the Saudi ordered departure recorded the US embassy's airport warning and Saxo's expectation of volatility around the midterms, and The National's own front page on Friday led with KLM, Singapore Airlines and Air France extending Middle East flight suspensions. A head-of-government presence from Riyadh in Abu Dhabi in early December would be a statement that Gulf capitals remain reachable; the fact that it is being sought by letter two months out, and twice, is a measure of how much that statement is now worth.

Reuters reported from Houston that oil jumped more than 2% on Friday and settled at its highest since the end of April as traders braced for a potential escalation in the Iran war after the US midterm elections, with the Hormuz tanker attack highlighting supply risk. Brent for December, which expired on Friday, settled up $2.76 or 2.4% at $117.64 after touching $118; the more active January contract gained $2.63 to $113.43; WTI settled $2.12 higher at $104.12. For October, Brent finished 13.6% higher and WTI 15.2%. Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial told Reuters traders "will remain focused on oil flows out of the Middle East and the likely escalation by US and allied forces"; Saxo Bank expects crude to trade in a $70 to $90 range even after the conflict ends, against $60 to $70 before the war.

The poll published the same morning is a cooler document. Thirty-two economists and analysts surveyed through October forecast Brent averaging $92.88 in 2026 and WTI $86.60, up from $89.05 and $83.90 a month earlier; UniCredit's Tobias Keller said constrained Middle Eastern flows, exceptionally tight product markets and depleted inventories leave risks "skewed to the upside". HSBC's Kim Fustier said Hormuz liquids flows had recovered faster than her base case to around 10 million barrels per day, which helped cap prices, while the physical market stayed abnormally tight on steep backwardation, elevated differentials and record shipping costs, and estimated around 5 million bpd of demand loss in the second quarter concentrated in lower-income countries. The poll sees 2026 demand falling 2.5 million bpd, a fourth-quarter deficit of about 2.7 million bpd, a 2027 surplus of about 290,000 bpd if Gulf flows improve, and seven core OPEC+ members keeping December targets steady on Sunday, per three people with knowledge of the matter. Reuters also recorded that Saudi crude exports rose in October from September according to two of three ship-tracking companies.

Argaam's end-of-session data for Thursday, October 29 show TASI at 9,921.50, down 101.97 points or 1.02%, having opened at 10,052.74, which was also the high, and touched 9,902.10 before the close; 438,738 transactions produced SAR 4.03 billion in value traded. The five-day return is still positive at 2.33%, but the longer windows carry the war: 5.90% lower over three months, 11.72% lower over six, 15.58% lower over a year and 5.43% lower year to date. The MT30 lost 14.89 points or 1.10% to 1,340.39, and Nomu moved the other way, up 200.66 points or 0.94% to 21,474.39.

Thursday was the session that priced Reuters' Wednesday night account of five burned floors at Aramco's Dhahran headquarters and the ministry's Shaybah statement, and it closed before the Houthis' six-target claim of Thursday evening and before Friday's US ordered-departure announcement. The exchange is closed on Friday and Saturday; the first session to price the embassy statement, the Mecca interception, the Hormuz limpet attack and Brent's $117.64 expiry is Sunday, November 1, which is also the day the core OPEC+ producers meet.

Anadolu reported that Saudi Arabia on Friday announced additional precautionary measures against the Ebola virus, introduced following an assessment of the epidemiological situation by health authorities: suspending travel by Saudi citizens to Kenya, halting the issuance of all types of visas to travellers from Kenya, and prohibiting entry to travellers arriving from Kenya, including those travelling through third countries who stayed in Kenya or other Ebola-affected countries during the 21 days preceding arrival. SPA described the restrictions as part of preventive measures introduced in 2019 and strengthened this May for arrivals from countries facing outbreak risk; in June the Kingdom suspended travel to and entry from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda and South Sudan, and it has strengthened screening at entry points, epidemiological investigation and early response for arrivals from neighbouring countries.

The Saudi Public Health Authority, Weqaya, said the country's public health situation remains reassuring and under continuous monitoring, and that it is coordinating with relevant agencies to implement preventive measures as necessary. The measure lands in the same week the US embassy told its own staff they need special authorisation to use Saudi airports: the Kingdom's borders are now being managed on two axes at once, the one that stops missiles and the one that stops passengers, and the second is the one Riyadh controls entirely.